Planning a trip to Zanzibar this autumn? Weather services expect El Niño 2026 to bring more rain than usual from October 2026 into early 2027, and not only to Zanzibar. The forecasts cover a big part of East Africa: the coast and islands of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Somalia and southern Ethiopia. It won’t stop your holiday. Here’s what the forecasts say, how it can affect your tours in Zanzibar and what we do when the sky turns grey.
You’ve probably heard the name on the news, usually next to words like “weird weather”. Here’s the simple version.
Every few years, the sea in the middle of the Pacific Ocean gets warmer than usual. That sounds very far from Zanzibar, and it is. But the ocean and the air above it work together, so when a big patch of sea warms up, winds and rain clouds around the world start moving differently. Some countries get a drought, others get extra rain. East Africa usually lands in the second group.
This year there’s one more thing: the Indian Ocean on our side is warmer than usual too (scientists call it a positive Indian Ocean Dipole). Warm sea means more moisture in the air, and more moisture means more rain. That’s why both the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) and the regional climate centre ICPAC expect a wetter than normal season across East Africa, Zanzibar included.
Keep in mind it’s a forecast for a whole season and a big region, not for your exact beach on your exact day. Some weeks will be wet, others mostly sunny, and we’ll keep an eye on the short-term forecasts for you.
Here’s what each month is likely to look like this season.
October 2026
According to TMA, the short rains will spread across the coast and the islands during October. Expect the first showers and more clouds than in the dry months, with plenty of warm, sunny hours in between. Beach days and boat trips are usually still very much on.
November 2026 · most rain
November is the month to plan around. TMA expects rainfall to increase most in November, so this is when heavy downpours and fully rainy days are most likely. Keep the boat trips and safari for the days with a good forecast, and save Stone Town for a cloudy one.
December 2026
In a normal year, the short rains fade out during December. This year the season is expected to stay wetter for longer. Coming for Christmas or New Year? Pack a light rain jacket and give yourself a spare day for anything that depends on the sea.
January 2027
January is usually one of the drier, hotter months. This time, TMA says rain may continue into January 2027, so the first half of the month could still bring some showers. We’ll happily tell you what it looks like on the ground closer to your trip.
Yes, with a bit of flexibility. It stays warm, the sea is warm, and rain on Zanzibar is rarely a reason to stay in your room all day. You’ll also find quieter beaches than in the high season.
Still choosing your dates? Have a look at our Best Time to Visit Zanzibar guide, where we go through the whole year month by month.
Just text us on WhatsApp. We’ll tell you which tours fit your dates, keep an eye on the forecast for you, and if the weather turns, help you move your tour to another day or find a different plan.
Tip: keep your WhatsApp number up to date in your booking so we can reach you quickly.
The rains don’t stop at the coast. TMA and FAO expect above-average rain in parts of mainland Tanzania too, including the regions around the parks we visit from Zanzibar (Mikumi, Nyerere and Saadani). Heavy rain can make park roads muddy and affect small-plane flights.
Planning a safari between October and January? Leave some flexibility in your schedule. We check the forecast before every safari and move the date if needed.
Every foreign visitor to Zanzibar needs the official inbound travel insurance from the Zanzibar Insurance Corporation (around $44 per adult). Your own travel insurance doesn't replace it, so buy it online before you fly at visitzanzibar.go.tz.
Book boat trips and safari early in your stay, so there's room to move them.
A light rain jacket, quick-dry clothes and sandals.
That's where we'll reach you if a tour needs to move.
Handy on the boat, rain or shine.
We know which beaches and reefs are sheltered when the wind picks up.
Handy for taxis and markets on a rainy day in town.
A cloudy day is a good excuse to see the island from a different side. These are our favourites when the sea needs a break.
Yes, weather services expect a wetter than normal short rainy season in Zanzibar from October 2026 into January 2027, with the most rain in November.
A warming of the Pacific Ocean every few years that shifts winds and rain around the world. In East Africa it usually means more rain from October to December.
Yes, travel goes on as normal. Heavy rain can cause local flooding and delays, so follow local advice and leave some flexibility in your plans.
Warm, humid and wetter than usual. November is expected to be the rainiest month of the season, with heavy showers and some fully rainy days.
Not necessarily. Many tours run in light rain if the sea is calm. If conditions aren’t safe, we contact you to rebook, change the tour or refund.
It can. Above-average rain is expected in parts of mainland Tanzania too, so park roads and small-plane flights may be affected. We check the forecast and move the date if needed.
Usually June to October and January to February. See our Best Time to Visit Zanzibar guide for the full month-by-month overview.
A rainy afternoon in Zanzibar still beats a rainy afternoon at home. Tell us your dates and we’ll help you plan tours that work with the weather.
Last updated: October 2026. Based on the seasonal forecasts of the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) and ICPAC, the regional climate centre for East Africa. Forecasts change, so we’ll update this guide if the outlook changes.
